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Monday, August 15, 2011

Gold Outlook for 2011

Gold the ultimate reserve currency , Gold Price Per Ounce Predictions Over $2,000 by most investment ,analysts. Golds historic high is $2,400 if you adjusted for inflation based of 1980's gold price high. JP Morgan predicts $2,500 ounce, Bank of America Merell Lynch $2,000 ounce in next year. Whats is backing these predictions? Federal reserve - key interest rate low. to continue to 2013, quantitative easing, Trade deficit is now 4.4% or $53.1 Billion, 26.7 Billion with china alone. Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements . In some parts of the world gold is viewed as the protector of wealth. In North America, gold is viewed as a speculative investment. Our economists regard a rising gold price as an admission of defeat, and their disparaging attitude toward higher gold prices took on a more desperate tone in 2010. Nevertheless, gold had another remarkable year, up 25% in 2010, its tenth straight annual gain. Meanwhile, over the same 10-year period, five major currencies -- the US and Canadian dollars, the euro, the British pound and the yen -- have lost between 70% and 80% of their value. In reality, gold is not rising; currencies are falling in value, and gold can rise as far as currencies can fall. Nick discusses the three dominant medium-term trends that pushed up gold prices in 2010 (central bank buying; movement away from the US dollar; China) as well as three longer-term, irreversible trends that will put upward pressure on the gold price for years to come (the aging population; outsourcing; peak oil). In addition to these trends, more and more investors will be competing to buy a shrinking gold supply. As safe-haven demand accelerates, there will be a transition from the $200-trillion financial asset market to the $3-trillion aboveground gold bullion market. About half of that $3 trillion is held by central banks as reserves; the remainder is privately held, and not for sale at any price. If the world's pension and hedge funds moved only 5% of their assets into gold, it would trade at over $5,000 per ounce. Nick's conclusion: Without any new financial crises, both mid- and long-term trends indicate that gold -- and silver -- will continue rising through 2011 and well beyond.

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